Nearly a year on Ukraine is unbeaten. How will it end, and how will markets react? Putin is upping the stakes, hoping he can bluff and threaten his way to a result. It’s not about Ukraine surviving, but what happens if Putin loses badly and Russia collapses as a failed state. Sanctions don’t work – what else can the West do?
The West will win the economic war against Russia, but it will take time and impose recessionary costs, while triggering pain across markets (including the housing bubble). But when it’s done… it will time to put your buying boots on!
We all want peace in Ukraine, but it’s critical that Russia is seen to lose, and lose badly – not only China, but India and the Gulf are watching. There are pros and cons to winning an economic war, and moral issues also, but the West can win – if it has the determination to do so.
