Nearly a year on Ukraine is unbeaten. How will it end, and how will markets react? Putin is upping the stakes, hoping he can bluff and threaten his way to a result. It’s not about Ukraine surviving, but what happens if Putin loses badly and Russia collapses as a failed state. Sanctions don’t work – what else can the West do?
The UK’s Met Office says it was warmest year on record – what does that mean in terms of climate change opportunities in the long-run, and how the geopolitical threat mellows now that General Winter has abandoned Putin?
The last few days have confirmed we are in a Global Economic Energy War. It is remaking the global order – and will have significant long-term effects on Global Markets. As the sides shift, there will be winners and losers.
Putin’s supposed cleverness haunts markets. How much harder will he squeeze Europe’s energy crisis? How will Russia change the geo-political order? Will Italy’s coming election be the crisis that breaks the Euro? We give Russia too much credit – it’s a weak nation that can only get weaker.
Russia thought it would roll over Ukraine, but the West’s Financial Blitzkrieg now threatens to trigger the unravelling of Putin’s autocracy. Excellent! The West needs Russia and Russia needs the West. It’s Putin’s kleptocracy we could all do without…