Bitcoin’s recent gains are about as relevant as Liz Truss. But banks, earnings, inflation, rates and investment remain critical. Now shadow banking investment is under threat – which isn’t going to help.
The Media love financial crisis – it sells. The reality is the need to understand, plan, prepare, and don’t expect anything you expected to happen, happen. Enjoy. Sun comes up tomorrow.
The “rescue” of Credit Suisse, thereby averting a European banking crisis, is getting less comment than the nixing of its $17.5 bln of CoCo Bonds. I’ve been warning about CoCos since 2011. Finally I got something right!
Central Banks face a mighty challenge persuading markets and depositors the banking system is stable. The war between chaos and order in markets has turned hot. At stake is the stability and future of the global economy. Anyone for the last few choc ice?
SVB is done and dusted, and its time to ask questions, like: what is the future for banks? What do they do, and how do they do it? Are they at an evolutionary dead end? Probably. And the sheer joy that is the UK budget… stronger coffee please.
SVB is a crisis averted, but the market wasn’t paying close attention which spells opportunity. There are bigger risks from central banks being distracted from fighting inflation and normalising rates. That’s the real crisis!
Markets are in a fluster over US banks, but that’s not the real problem. There is a looming crisis about to roil markets stemming from inflated valuations in the Private Asset sector. This is going to get really messy. Hard Hats on!
Don’t be fooled by thin summer markets – the world has changed, markets no longer take August off. Yet, finance changes slowly - for all the talk about diversity it’s taking generations to change the mindset and sense of entitlement that underlies markets. Maybe a good shock will be no-bad-thing – but banks making statements about their diversity ambitions should be treated with suspicion.
Coinbase’s direct listing was a muted success. It looks likely to trade in line with volatile bitcoin and other cryptos. On the back of the claims of increased “adoption” of Crypto by the Street, the exchange has first mover status meeting the need for the facilitation of safe crypto investment while expanding services for holders – but what does it fundamentally mean about the long-term future of the “crypto-ecosystem”?
Markets were shaken but unstirred by the collapse of Greensill and the Archegos unwind trades. Credit Suisse is the ultimate loser of the two scandals – reputationally damaged and holed below the water line. The bank is paying the price of years of flawed management, poor risk awareness. and its self-belief it was still a Tier 1 global player. Its’ challenge is to avoid becoming the Deutsche Bank of Switzerland – which it will struggle to do without a radical and unlikely shakeout.
