Category Supply Chains

Outlook for the second half? Rising interest rates and ongoing supply shocks spell trouble

Stocks tumbled 20% in H1, but Central Banks are fixated on Inflation as the No 1 priority with higher interest rates nailed on. Supply chain issues remain difficult, meaning corporate earnings will remain under pressure. The market is setting up for further weakness through H2.

Markets, Central Banks, Inflation and the Chaotic Tipping Point

The number of threats facing markets; from inflation, central bank hikes, war, geopolitics, recession risks, corporate earnings and bond liquidity are legion. The big risk is they combine into a chaotic tipping point, at which moment we will just have to pick up the pieces…. Again.

Shipping – a real world asset class, but complex!

Yesterday’s ongoing pain in crashing financial asset markets demonstrates the need to diversify portfolios and decorrelated returns. Shipping is one such asset; returns have been boosted by scarcity as a result of the pandemic – the question is: can these returns be maintained?

How many reasons to be miserable about markets do you need?

It’s going to be a testing week for markets as a whole slew of negatives, challenges and no-see-ums threaten to overturn everything. It couldn’t look worse… unless of course you remember my key market mantra (read on), and that the sun usually comes up tomorrow. Happy Valentines.. 

BatPoop Crazy Stories May Herald a New Trade War

Everyone loves a conspiracy theory, but what if the stories Covid escaped from a China virus lab take hold? We will never know the truth, but as the  rumours multiply, they could trigger renewed trade-war. It could unravel China’s regional hegemony and trigger a dramatic reversal for the global economy -especially for China.