esterday’s US CPI numbers look good at a glance, but the reality is the Western economies may face ongoing sticky inflation and long-term stagflation while reversing the economic damage of a decade plus of monetary experimentation. That requires new investment approaches.
Bitcoin’s recent gains are about as relevant as Liz Truss. But banks, earnings, inflation, rates and investment remain critical. Now shadow banking investment is under threat – which isn’t going to help.
Markets are taking a breather after the recent wobbles, but the threat board has never looked, well, more threatening! Relax. Go see Guys and Dolls instead and treat yourself to a great night out.. tomorrow it will be miserable again!
The Fed tries to be dovish to calm market fears, but banking fears and inflationary threats on the economy may lead us somewhere new: A Stagflationary Bust!
Make the world a better place by enabling women on International Women’s Day! And, Bond Markets need to a rethink.
Markets have a habit of getting over-excited. They get FOMO and become over hasty. Although the outlook is improving, there is certainly little to justify some of the more speculative hype dominating market moves. Time a bit of rational thinking and common sense – consider Tesla as an example of misplaced hopes.
Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!
Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent, confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.
Well, that was a fun week… but the UK’s travails are the tip of the iceberg of market pain facing the global economy. More political, geopolitical, liquidity and leverage driven crises are coming as markets reverse out the QE era. Don’t Panic!
Risk does not disappear. It hides in plain sight – as the investment industry will increasingly discover as crises mounts. Fortunately, there are SOB’s who have seen it before and are too aged to panic…